A significant shift is underway in European defense spending as NATO members grapple with heightened security concerns and mounting pressure to increase military investments. The alliance’s longtime 2% GDP spending target, established in 2014, is rapidly becoming obsolete as military leaders push for higher spending levels amid growing security challenges.

Germany’s Defense Committee Chair Marcus Faber revealed in a Bloomberg interview that NATO Secretary General Rutte recently indicated 3% of GDP could become “the new floor” for alliance members’ defense spending. This potential increase comes as Germany faces the need to replace aging military equipment, with Faber noting that the Bundeswehr has “a lot of old equipment that we have to replace.”

The push for higher spending is evident across Europe. Belgium, long criticized as one of NATO’s lowest defense spenders at just 1.3% of GDP, announced plans to boost its budget to 2% by 2029 and 2.5% by 2034. Defense Minister Theo Francken characterized Belgium’s previous underspending as a “period of national disgrace,” noting that actual spending on armed forces was less than 1.2% when excluding Ukraine support.

The European Union is exploring ways to accommodate increased defense spending within its strict budget rules. According to POLITICO, the EU is considering expanding what qualifies as defense investment to include military staffing and equipment maintenance costs. This would give countries more flexibility to boost military spending without violating the bloc’s rules limiting national budget deficits to 3% of GDP and public debt to 60% of GDP.

This approach could particularly benefit nations with tight budgets like Italy and France, while helping countries like Poland justify defense investments despite being under EU monitoring for excessive deficits. The move comes as Europe searches for ways to fund its defense needs as the war in Ukraine enters its fourth year.

Increased cooperation between European nations is emerging as a key strategy. Belgium plans to expand partnerships with the Netherlands and Luxembourg in areas including maritime operations, air defense, and special forces. The Netherlands recently doubled its order for anti-submarine warfare frigates and added six more F-35 fighters to its fleet, while Belgium is seeking additional F-35s and a third frigate.

The urgency to increase defense spending is partly driven by concerns about future U.S. policy. Belgian Defense Minister Francken explicitly referenced Donald Trump, noting that questions about European underinvestment in defense would likely be raised “in a brutal manner” under a Trump presidency.

Belgium plans to present a new investment plan ahead of the NATO summit in The Hague in June, where the alliance spending target will likely be raised. The country faces immediate priorities including addressing a major shortage in munitions and investing in layered air defense, particularly around strategic locations like the port of Antwerp, which serves as a military mobility hub for U.S. Army combat brigades.